Latest
30
Jan
Why Volatility Is Your Friend (If You're Doing This One Thing)
Market drops aren't the enemy—they're when your fixed investments buy the most shares. How dollar-cost averaging turns volatility into an advantage.
3 min read
28
Jan
I Sold Costco. The Business Didn’t Break — I Did.
I sold Costco not because the business broke, but because I did. The numbers still said hold — but a position that costs you sleep is already too expensive.
1 min read
26
Jan
I Built the Framework. It Flashed Green. Then I Remembered Taxes.
Fidelity gave me the destination. MVRV gave me the position. Lyn Alden gave me the macro lens. Now I built the decision matrix. Green = accumulate. Yellow = hold. Red = get out. Here's every cell. Part 4 of 4.
5 min read
21
Jan
Home Depot Isn’t Broken — The Housing Cycle Is
Home Depot is a best-in-class retailer stuck in a frozen housing market. At today’s price, you’re paying fair value for a cycle that hasn’t turned yet—and I’d rather wait than force the entry.
6 min read
19
Jan
Bitcoin Part 3: The Number That Predicts Bitcoin 83% of the Time
MVRV says mid-cycle. The Fed just ended quantitative tightening. One metric looks at Bitcoin's internal cycle, the other tracks global liquidity. Right now they agree. That's rare—and it won't last. Part 3 of 4.
4 min read
16
Jan
Where to Find My New Posts
All new posts are now on Substack: phaetrix.substack.com (@phaetrix).
16
Jan
The Dividend Mirage: Why Most High Yields Are Traps
Most high-yield stocks aren’t opportunities—they’re warnings. Here’s how to spot the traps, filter for real dividend durability, and build income that actually grows instead of blows up.
2 min read
16
Jan
Five Mistakes That Kill DIY Portfolios
High yield isn't a gift—it's often a warning. Five mistakes that sabotage DIY portfolios and the simple math that prevents them.
3 min read
14
Jan
Intel: A Turnaround That Never Arrives
Intel has been “turning around” for half a decade. The promise keeps moving forward. The costs are real. The results aren’t.
8 min read
12
Jan
Bitcoin Part 2: The One Number That's Called Every Top and Bottom
Every Bitcoin transaction ever made is public. That means we can calculate what everyone actually paid—in real time. One metric has called every major top and bottom for 13 years. Here's how to read it.
3 min read