I Built the Framework. It Flashed Green. Then I Remembered Taxes.

This is a continuation of my four part series on valuating Bitcoin.

My son sat across from me at the kitchen table.

I’d just walked him through everything. Fidelity’s TAM math. The MVRV chart that shut me up. Lyn Alden’s liquidity thesis. Three weeks of research. Three different lenses. Three articles worth of homework.

He listened without interrupting. That was new.

When I finished, he nodded slowly. “So you finally have a framework.”

“I think so.”

“And?”

“And what?”

“Are you buying?”

I’d been dreading that question.

The Synthesis

Here’s what I realized: each framework answers a different question.

Fidelity tells me the destination. Where could Bitcoin theoretically go? If it takes 25% of gold’s market share, that’s $375,000. If it takes 50%, that’s $750,000. The ceiling is real. The math works.

MVRV tells me the position. Where are we in the cycle? Is everyone greedy or terrified? Are we early, mid, or late? Right now, at 1.21, we’re neutral. (You can track this live at Glassnode, CryptoQuant, or Bitcoin Magazine Pro.) Not euphoria. Not capitulation. Middle of the road.

Alden tells me the environment. What’s the wind doing? Is the Fed printing or tightening? Is liquidity expanding or contracting? The Fed ended quantitative tightening in early December. The headwind just stopped.

Three questions. Three answers. One picture.

“So I built a decision matrix,” I told my son.

He laughed. “Of course you did.”

The Matrix

I’m a fundamental analyst. I need rules. Not feelings. Not vibes. Rules.

Here’s what I came up with:

GREEN - Accumulate:

• MVRV below 2 AND liquidity expanding
• Translation: Cycle is early/mid, wind at your back

YELLOW - Hold or wait:

• MVRV below 2 but liquidity contracting (value trap risk)
• MVRV between 2-3.5 with liquidity expanding (getting frothy)
• Translation: One signal is good, one is cautious. Don’t chase.

RED - Take profits or stay out:

• MVRV above 3.5, regardless of liquidity
• MVRV between 2-3.5 with liquidity contracting
• Translation: Cycle is late or environment is hostile. Protect capital.

My son looked at it. “That’s actually... simple.”

“Simple is the point. If I need a PhD to execute it, I won’t execute it.”

Where Are We Now?

December 2025. Let’s run the checklist.

Destination: Bitcoin at $93,000 implies about 6% of gold’s market share. If you believe it eventually captures 25%, there’s 4× upside. The destination thesis is intact.

Position: MVRV at 1.21. Neutral. Not screaming buy, not screaming sell. We’re somewhere in the middle of a cycle - which makes sense, we’re 18 months past the 2022 bottom.

Environment: Fed ended QT December 1, 2025. Liquidity headwind is gone. M2 stabilizing. Dollar mixed but not surging.

MVRV 1.21 + liquidity tailwind = GREEN.

I stared at my own matrix. It was telling me to accumulate.

My son watched me do the math. “So?”

The Kill Switch

“Not so fast,” I said. “I need exit rules too.”

He rolled his eyes. “Mom...”

“I’ve seen too many people fall in love with an asset. They find reasons to hold forever. Then they ride it down 80% and call it ‘conviction.’”

In Bitcoin, the people who got rich fastest are usually the ones who got poor again fastest.

Every framework needs a kill switch. Here’s mine:

Exit when:

• MVRV crosses 3.5 and stays there. History says that’s late cycle. Don’t be greedy.
• Fed restarts tightening. If QT comes back or rates spike, the tailwind becomes a headwind.
• I’m wrong about the destination. If something breaks the digital gold thesis - a better competitor, a regulatory death blow, a protocol failure - reassess everything.

“So you’ll actually sell?” my son asked.

“I’ll actually sell.”

He looked genuinely surprised.

What This Framework Doesn’t Do

I need to be honest about the limits.

It doesn’t give me a price target. There’s no “Bitcoin is worth exactly $147,293.” The asset doesn’t work that way.

It doesn’t predict timing. I don’t know if the next move is next week or next year. Nobody does.

It doesn’t eliminate risk. Bitcoin could go to zero. Frameworks don’t prevent black swans.

It doesn’t tell me how much to buy. Position sizing depends on your risk tolerance, your portfolio, your sleep quality. That’s personal.

What it does:

• Replaces gut feelings with structure
• Tells me if conditions favor buying, holding, or selling
• Gives me explicit exit criteria so I don’t become a bagholder with a thesis

The Question

The Question

My son leaned back. “So after all that research. All those articles. All those frameworks. What’s your answer?”

I looked at the matrix. Green light. I checked the MVRV chart. Neutral. I checked liquidity. Tailwind.

“Framework says green. But I’m not done.”

He blinked. “Mom. What else is there?”

“Taxes. And your father.”

He groaned. “Dad doesn’t understand it.”

“Dad doesn’t have to understand it. It’s his retirement too.”

Here’s the thing nobody talks about in crypto circles: I’m retired. My income is steady and deliberately optimized. Adding a volatile asset that can trigger short-term gains, messy reporting, or unexpected taxable events isn’t a spreadsheet problem — it’s an accountant problem.

And my husband? He looked at me like I’d suggested we invest in magic beans. Thirty years of marriage means some decisions aren’t just mine to make.

The framework says green. But the framework doesn’t file my taxes. And it doesn’t sleep next to my husband.

“You’re overthinking it,” my son said.

“I’m being careful. There’s a difference.”

Where I Am Now

I have a framework I trust. That’s more than I had three weeks ago.

The signals say green. MVRV neutral. Liquidity tailwind. Destination thesis intact.

I haven’t bought yet. Not because the math doesn’t work - it does. But because the math isn’t the only variable. Tax implications. Portfolio allocation. Estate planning. A spouse who needs to be on board.

That last one doesn’t show up in any Bitcoin thread. But it should.

Marriage means shared risk. Shared accounts. Shared consequences. You don’t get to YOLO into a volatile asset when someone else is counting on that money too.

My son thinks I’m stalling. My husband thinks I’m finally being sensible. Maybe they’re both right.

But I’d rather be slow and right than fast and sorry. I’ve seen too many people optimize for returns and forget about everything else.

The Framework, Summarized

For those who want the cheat sheet:

Destination (Fidelity): What’s the ceiling? TAM as % of gold.

Position (ARK/MVRV): Where in the cycle? Below 2 = early/mid. Above 3.5 = late.

Environment (Alden): Wind direction? M2 expanding = tailwind. Contracting = headwind.

GREEN: MVRV < 2, liquidity expanding. Accumulate.

YELLOW: Mixed signals. Hold or wait.

RED: MVRV > 3.5 or liquidity contracting. Trim or exit.

Current reading (December 2025): GREEN.

What Happens Next

I’ll update this framework quarterly - next check-in is March 2026. When conditions change between now and then, I’ll write about it. When MVRV approaches danger zones, you’ll hear from me. If I buy, I’ll tell you why. If I don’t, I’ll explain what’s holding me back.

Framework synthesized from Fidelity Digital Assets, ARK Invest/David Puell, and Lyn Alden Investment Strategy.

This is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. I am not a financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.